Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Article Title: Initial economic damage from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States is more widespread across ages and geographies than initial mortality impacts
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2014279117
Figure Lengend Snippet: Predicted vs. observed outcomes by age group. These figures compare predicted and observed ( A ) mortality per 10,000 and ( B ) employment–population ratio, both in April 2020, for the age groups for which the CDC publishes recent weekly death counts, using point estimates for observed outcomes. The employment–population ratio is calculated using the IPUMS CPS microdata and mortality measures are calculated using aggregate CDC data by age group. Predicted values for each outcome are calculated using a linear time trend with month fixed effects; the preperiod is from 2011 to 2019. Heteroskedasticity-robust SEs to construct 95% confidence intervals are computed with clustering by year.
Article Snippet: Monthly economic data from 2011 to 2020 come from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) Current Population Survey (CPS), which harmonizes data across months from the CPS ( ).
Techniques: Construct